Just as predicted, the 1st leg went under 2.5 goals (0-0), and again this will be my bet on the second leg.
The Greeks have an aging squad in general that cannot afford to play open and speedy football, and travelling with nothing to fall back on means they will try their most to keep it tight in hopes they can hit one on the break and sleep on it. If not, then at least take the game to extra-time, and –hopefully for them- a PK shoot-out.
The Ukraine certainly do not want to concede at home as that would be “advantage Greece”. However, they have shown us before that at home they are quite solid, and they have only conceded once in 5 home games in the group. Ironically, it was Kazakhstan –of all sides- that managed to score that goal.
Greece on the road managed wins over Luxembourg and Latvia, but then drew 1-1 to Israel, lost 0-2 in Switzerland and drew 1-1 at Moldova.
Although 4 of the above 5 results would be in favour of Greece if they managed to match any of them on Wednesday, I’m afraid only the draw at Israel counts, as I certainly do not rate the likes of Luxembourg, Latvia or even Moldova to be at the same level as Ukraine.
But I’ll have to admit the Greeks have a solid defense (traditionally), and I still maintain I do not know which of these two will end up winning the qualification ticket. It’s still a 50-50 (more or less) chance for the two, and I’ll settle for the under 2.5 goals option.
Pick:
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.55 w/ Unibet
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