In their last 5 visits to Florence, Roma have not been able to register a single win. They lost 2 and drew 3 of them, and the last time they won here was in 2005. Overall they are 3-6-5 away to Fiorentina since 1994.
This season Fiorentina are 6-1-3 at home, while Roma are 3-5-3 on the road.
Now knowing Fiorentina only won over Lazio in their last 5 games in all competition, and Roma are on a 7-games winning streak in all competitions, and are unbeaten in 18 games I would have thought Roma should be slight favourites here, not the other way around.
HOWEVER, Roma won their last 7 games in all competitions, but they played 6 of the at home at the Olimpico, and only managed to beat Juve away. Juve btw are 5-3-4 at home.
Their 2 away games before that both ended in draws at Cagliari and Sampdoria, so it’s quite misleading to say Roma are on a good run overall. It’s more like they are on an excellent HOME run. Period.
Fiorentina also are winless in 3, but all 3 were away from home. At home they 5-0-1 from their last 6, or 7-0-2 from their last 9, so that is probably why the Viola are still priced to be the favourites and I should agree.
Felipe and Mutu are out suspended for the home side. Roma will have the pleasure of Totti, Toni and Vucinic being available again, but Burdisso is out suspended.
My mind says a draw, but my gut feeling says Ranieri’s undefeated run will be halted, so I’m on Fiorentina on the Asian market.
Pick:
Fiorentina 0 A.H. @ 1.80 w/ Stan James
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