It’s probably a foregone conclusion that the home win is inevitable in this one, and the odds of 1.20 on Barca to win outright are just about right IMHO, although they are –of course- quite useless for a punter with any brains.
Barca are top of the table, and have netted 24 goals in 9, and conceded only 5. Even more, they have played 4 home games and have won them all scoring 15 goals and conceding 3, so that’s Barca stats in a nutshell.
The visitors are as high as 5th, but they only excel at home (5-0-0) while on the road they really suck (0-2-2). They struggle to get their act together on the travel, and have only scored 3 away goals this season, conceding 8 in the process. They even only managed their away draws to Villareal and Atletico Madrid; two sides whom who were obviously on the worst of their forms at the time. They also lost to Valladolid away in the Cup, so –again- I have no argument against the outright home win.
What I do have a strong argument against is the silly -2 A.H. on offer. You don’t expect a side that has just travelled all the way to Russia and back in the midweek to be without any tired legs, and given Mallorca themselves are no pushovers, they’re sure to offer Barca some resistance and certainly won’t lie down and take a beating.
As a matter of fact, in 13 previous visits to the Nou Camp (including last year’s Copa del Rey) since Mallorca were promoted back to La Liga Primera back in 1997, they have only lost once by more than 2 goals, and Barca have scored 3 goals vs them here on only 3 occasions to begin with (3-0, 3-1 & 3-2)
No major injury worries for either coaches tonight, so both sides should virtually have a complete squad to pick from, but I’m counting on the slight advantage Mallorca has over Barca (having resting in the midweek) to keep the score close and decent.
Picks:
Mallora +2 A.H. @ 2.08 w/ Pinnacle
Under 2.5 goals @ 3.00 w/ Stan James
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