It’s the Spanish capital derby time once again, a game that always comes accompanied with much heat no matter what form or position either of the two are in.
This time around, Real are flying high near the top (2nd with just 1 point behind Barcelona at the top), while Atletico enters the game from inside the relegation zone (3rd bottom), yet the odds on Real to win are well above evens, so it shows how the game is a major example of derby games being quite unpredictable.
Both sides have identical forms from their last respective 5 games in all competitions (1-2-2). Real only won over Getafe in La Liga, and settled for draws at Gijon (La Liga) and Milan (CL), losing to Milan at home (CL ) and Alcorcon (Spanish Cup). Atletico won in the Cup over Marbella, lost away to Chelsea (CL) and Bilbao (LA Liga), and got two home draws vs Mallorca (La Liga) and Chelsea (CL).Both also had an identical goal record during that run with each having scored exactly 5 goals and conceding 8.
Let’s face it though: The last time Atletico ever conquered Real was back in the 1999-2000 season, so that’s not an option at less than 4 odds. However, the last 6 (anywhere)were equally divided between Real wins and draws, although more draws occur in the Bernabeu than in the Vicente Calderon. In fact, Real won 6 of their last 7 visits to the Calderon since Atletico were promoted back to La Liga Primera back in 2003-04.
Although Higuain was the one behind Real’s win at Getafe last weekend, having scored both goals in the 2-0 triumph in the other (smaller) Spanish capital derby, he still could lose his place in the starting XI to Raul, and frankly I don’t understand why! I’d be more comfortable with the two starting together if I was a Real Madrid fan.
Albiol though was shown the red vs Getafe and won’t be available tonight, so Sergi Ramos will most likely be reinstalled at the center of Real’s defence giving way to Marcelo on the flank. Also excluded for tactical reasons are Drenthe and Mahamadou Diarra, while CR is of course out injured.
“El Kun” will most certainly duo up with Forlan upfront once again for Atletico, but it could be that Juanito will be missing in their defence, in which case Perea is the most likely replacement. Also keeper Roberto remains sidelined, which means Asenjo will start. Pernia and Cabrera have been excluded for tactical reasons, while Assuncao is out on suspension.
Everyone is forecasting a draw it seems, which is admittedly a reasonable guess based on the latest form/run of both sides, but I will follow my gut feeling as well as the historical trend of Atletico getting better results at the Bernabeu than at their own den.
Picks:
Real Madrid win @ 2.11 w/ Pinnacle
Over 3.5 goals @ 2.40 w/ Expekt
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